Spiro Agnew + Harriet Miers = Sarah Palin

Some important facts to remember about Sarah Palin:

How much does she let her religious point of view run her life? For context, note that she was a supporter of Pat Buchanan. Buchanan is a far-right-wing religious extremist out of step with most Americans (even most religious ones). Robert Wexler has pointed out that Buchanan has a terrible record on Israel, and could fairly be called a Nazi sympathizer for his opposition to trials for former Nazi officers and for once calling Hitler someone of "great courage." Should play great in Florida. Is it too late for Madonna to update her tour slideshow?

She favors the teaching of Creationism in public schools. The logic there is the world is sooo amazing to us, it must have been created by God

She is a member of the Assembly of God church, which for context would ring a bell to Jim & Tammy Faye Bakker fans. (This is also the church of the enormously popular Jonas Brothers, whom I know personally and like very much, but whom I would not necessarily vote into public office. Though with Sarah Palin paving the way, they might be tapped next cycle. I'm hopeful they won't endorse or appear to endorse her.)

She is, of course, the subject of a criminal probe. She may even be deposed soon. The results of the probe will come out in late October. If they are unfavorable, there would be no time to leave the ticket. But if they were very unfavorable and she still won, as some DailyKos commenters have suggested, she could resign as vice-president and that would allow McCain to have one of his original choices. 

Can I get this as a T-shirt?

Palin also was the subject of a scandal when she replaced the man she fired with a man who had been guilty of sexual harassment in the past. Adding to the problem, she later admitted she'd known of the harassment charge, but hired him anyway:

She is anti-abortion. She may make an exception if the mother's life is in danger, but she does not make an exception for cases of rape...or incest. She may—and I can't find any evidence other than the fact that she's 44 with five kids—even be against birth control; there's a lot of conjecture about this already. But we already know her running mate is against it.

She was the mayor of Wasilla, a town of approximately 9,000.  She left the town in debt. In fact, she left the town with a debt equivalent to $3,000 per person. Her track record there has been somewhat white-washed already.

One of the first questions I had about Palin, after seeing her speak about having met McCain, was how well they know each other. Turns out they had met exactly one time before he invited her to one of his homes in Arizona, where he offered her the slot on his ticket. He's one good, hard cough away from leaving America in the hands of someone he's only met one time, who was never seriously (a few days' worth) vetted and whose experience consists of running a tiny town of a few thousand and 18 months as governor of one of the least-populated states.

People Magazine asked her if she's ready to assume the presidency if she has to: "Absolutely. Yup, yup. Especially with a good team around us."

There's no good reason to believe true conservatives like this selection. Case in point, David Frum of the National Post is not on board. Another case in point, the talking heads yesterday (for example, Kay Bailey Hutchison) could scarcely conceal their true feelings over this folly.

She is rabidly pro-gun, and pro-hunting. But she is also in favor of hunting brown bears at Katmai National Park, which is a place where bears have learned to trust humans (who visit them to photograph them daily). It's like shooting sitting ducks. Where is the sport in this?

She doesn't believe global warming is man-made.

Palin strongly opposes the classification of polar bears as "endangered," fearing it will get in the way of drilling for more oil in Alaska. How much does she believe in this? She sued the Bush Administration to try to get the polar bear off the list.

Well, that's one explanation.

She has no idea what a vice-president does all day. McCain's campaign sees the vice-presidency—literally—as on-the-job training: "She's going to learn national security at the foot of the master for the next four years."

She acknowledges sexism in the media coverage of Hillary Rodham Clinton, but still feels that for a female candidate to object to that very real sexism is "whining."

She has no strong opinions on Iraq, but would be a heartbeat away.

Her Wikipedia page was edited "68 times" the day before she was announced...all by the same person. Wouldn't it be so cool if it could be determined she did it herself? (One of the things deleted—her anti-gay stances are noted, but a notation that she has said she has gay friends was deleted.)

Most humorously, there is the possibility that her latest child—born with Down's Syndrome even though she knew he had this, bolstering her anti-abortion cred—may actually be her granddaughter. Shades of Chinatown.

Some conjecture:

If McCain thought he had a shot in hell of beating Obama, he never would have gone for this Hail Mary pass. This is noteworthy, because very few Democrats felt Obama had it in the bag prior to the Democratic National Convention. Hell, many still doubted him right up until this choice was made. (Of course, there is still doubt, but less.) He had at his disposal plenty of sane, solid Republican choices. If he were dead-set on a woman, he had Hutchison of Texas. My guess is he hated Mitt Romney too much, and that it had nothing to do with Romney's Mormonism, to invite him onto the ticket. I'm not sure why he went against Pawlenty, other than the gender thing. Others, including Hutchison, may very well have been asked and said no. But the fact remains, this was not a bold, maverick move—like choosing Joe Lieberman and pissing off the Democrats forever—this was naked desperation.

Think McCain was 100% behind her? Check him out as she spoke:

McCain Fidgeting As His Ridick VP Pick Speaks

It seems that Karl Rove got to McCain and showed him that the fundamentals of this cycle are so negative to Republicans that his only shot was to rile up the right-to-life and pro-gun lobbies. Those lobbies are single-issue voters. As long as they have their babies and their shotguns, they could not care less about national security, the economy or anything else that is all in God's plan. He may well gain some of their support, but I believe that after an initial, "Aw, leave the nice lady alone!" bump for her, as voters realize she is a religious nut with ethics issues on top of it, it will become even more crystal clear that she's just another neocon kook, and is indeed "more of the same."

"Sorry...you're just not old enough for me, Sir."

Finally, I believe this risky selection shows another thing—there is no way that Karl Rove or anyone else connected to the McCain campaign has any truly juicy October-surpriseworthy news about Obama that they're sitting on. That means that no "whitey" tape, no Wright video, no homosexual affairs, none of that is currently sitting in a vault waiting for release. If that stuff were in hand with the McCain campaign, they would have no reason to go against McCain's personal wishes and choose Palin. He could have selected Tom Ridge (and lost the anti-abortion vote) or Joe Lieberman (ditto times 10), as he wanted to. So unless any damaging Obama material surfaces in the next 66 days—which could happen—I don't see a big, well-planned October surprise.

Part of the problem for the Republicans is they've already thrown everything but the kitchen sink at Obama, having assumed Reverend Wright and Michael Ayers and Tony Rezko would be enough. They were not, and now they're old news. Is it possible Obama has relatively few skeletons in his closet? Sure, why not. And maybe having fewer skeletons is what passes for what cynic label the Second Coming.

I, of course,  as an intelligent person despair at the fantasy of Sarah Palin in the White House. Even as a guest! But also as an intelligent person, I have to say I feel good about her selection. Polls will go up and down, but in the end, her partisan positions are not in line with the country's mood and her non-partisan flaws (inexperience and scandals) will outweigh her non-partisan virtues (down-to-earth, funny, relatable).

I don't think Mr. McCain and Ms. Palin will win or come close.

Comments

[Tom S.]

I agree.

When I first read that she was the most likely VP selection, I was nervous. Then, once I read only her comparatively brief Wikipedia page, I knew we had it in the bag. She's got so much baggage (which you so perfectly laid out here) that it really is no contest come November.

Also, I will be forwarding this article to Obama supporters and non-supporters.

[Tomi Luka]

Madonna told McCain 'get stupid'... and he did!

[Matthew Rettenmund]

Thanks, Tom! There are so, so many issues with her, they just keep coming too quickly to even compile. The top 2 Alaskan papers just published articles questioning her fitnes for this position, one of them pointing out she would only say on foreign affairs that all she knows is no one has attacked the homeland since Bush took the war to Iraq. Period. Next question!

Tomi: HILARIOUS!

[Jason]

She faked a pregnancy and is raising her daughter's baby? Oh my God she's Bree Van de Kamp! Who the hell gets on a plane AFTER labor has started?! Definitely fishiness going on here but of course the Republican Arrogance knows no bounds. I can't wait for the SNL skit where a pregnant Tina Fey tells the pageant judge that she'll be president of the United States someday...

[Andy Zeffer]

This whole election is like comedy meets soap opera.

First Obama comes out of nowhere. I swear I never heard of the guy eight months ago.

Then the Kennedys and Obamas get together and gang up on Clinton.

McCain seizes this and gets this woman as his VP choice, rubbing in the fact that Clinton was snubbed for VP.

Clinton is like a pawn in the whole screwed up chess game.

The sad thing is Clinton - who I am sorry to say in my opinion is the most brilliant and should be our commander in chief, find herself being referenced by both sides.

Obama and his wife, who you know both hate her guts, references her in speeches. Palin pays her homage in her speech.

It is like all roads lead to Hillary.

Even when Hillary is out of the picture, it is like she is the one on everyones tongue.

This whole election is thoroughly entertaining and like a fucked up episode of 90210 or Sweet Valley HIgh meets Washington.

I have to say for McCain, it was brilliant the way he stole the limelight from Obama. And this woman is the complete opposite of Obama, none of the cocky arrogance. (The guy may be a great speaker and scholar, but Lord is he cocky).

It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

The Democrats and media may pay for all the punches they threw at Hillary. We'll have to see. Will be interesting how it plays out.

Also, I think having less skeletons in the closet comes with having less of a record to look back on in general.

[Andy Zeffer]

By the way - and totally off the subject.

You have to admit she scored a hot husband. And her son is hot too.

[Matthew Rettenmund]

Andy: Brilliant isn't what I'd call this move; yes, it stole the news cycle, however, 38 million watched and 58% (highest recorded positive feedback on any acceptance) loved Obama's speech. Stealing the news cycle is not winning the news cycle. And the Hillary question shows how fundamentally MENTAL John McCain is about Hillary. Hillary's supporters are going to vote for Barack Obama. Any Hillary Clinton supporter who is going to be voting for McCain was always going to be voting for him. That's because to a Hillary Clinton voter, John McCain is more appealing than Sarah Palin! For whatever dumb reason, some (and it's a tiny number of PUMAs out there) people think McCain and Hillary are the same person in different genders. But most reasonable people realize they are polar opposites ideologically. It's not only a desperate move on his part, it's a seriously poorly thought out move. I wouldn't be "scared" to have John McCain as the president if this were the year 2000. In the year 2000, he was a conservative, but had a moderate streak (and actually, a couple of years later, met with Dems to discuss becoming a Dem!). But seeing the lengths he'll go to to try to be president, now I would be petrified of him. But with her as his veep, I'd be sending him baby aspirin to eat every day just to keep him alive, yeesh! (And I don't agree that Obama is "cocky." I think he's a smart, confident person, but he's not cocky, at least not to me. But I like smart people and am not a fan of folksier types, like Hillary is capable of pretending to be, or like Sarah Palin is...)

Yeah, her husband and son...who are not even Republicans, hehe. They're independents!

Jason: I think we're pretty much guaranteed seeing Tina Fey walking out to open SNL dressed as Sarah Palin and saying, "I think we all knew this was inevitable." I think that baby story could be real, as far-fetched as it is. (Oh, and someone thinks she named a couple of her kids after Sabrina the Teenage Witch or something like that.)

There's just so much to say.

[Andy Zeffer]

I still think there was a lot of game playing and double standards from the Obama camp. In other words - we can say whatever we want because we are black. If you say what you want you are racist. Identity politics is okay for us (black people voting for a candidate because he is black) but not for you, etc. The kind of crap you see in our society general.

But I do think Obama is smart and eloquent. And a go-getter.

Oh, this is the funniest thing I've seen about Palin since the announcement. I think you will get a big laugh out of it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boR2-6rks6Q

And speaking of pregnancies, congrats on becoming an uncle!